Thursday, May 10, 2012

Measurement artifact

It is curious that the Higgs hid to the last, only to be finally spotted  at the uneasy junction of two radically different measurement procedures.

PS See here for an unrelated but interesting example of scientific statistical mess up.

Friday, February 10, 2012


Assuming that the current value of the cost of default equals the excess
price of assumedly risk-free 10y German bonds over the 10y bonds of other
euronations today we get

Spread b.p. 1057
Default recovery rate % 35
Maturity years 10

Default prob. % 100.39
i.e. assuming a default recovery rate of 35%  the market are certain that
Portugal will default.

For Italy a 50% default recovery rate yields

Spread b.p. 370
Default recovery rate % 50
Maturity years 10

Default prob. % 61.85
which isn't exacly reassuring either.

Also the following is interesting:
 Spread b.p. 3100
Default recovery rate % 5
Maturity years 10

Default prob. % 100.52
The markets, who already know that Greece has defaulted, think that  the recovery rate will be just  5%.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

For a start

Before the end of 2013 the manned Soyuz spacecraft will suffer catastrophic failure. I am an admirer of the Russian space program and I hope I will be proven wrong,